* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 32 33 35 35 35 35 36 39 44 47 52 56 59 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 32 33 35 35 35 35 36 39 44 47 52 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 30 30 29 29 29 30 31 34 38 44 52 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 16 19 18 19 15 19 21 23 19 16 10 10 5 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -1 -1 1 -3 -2 0 -6 -1 -3 -2 -1 -2 1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 319 288 285 293 296 288 303 301 304 297 308 322 331 321 343 278 271 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.8 30.6 30.7 30.4 30.2 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 140 141 143 147 151 150 155 157 166 171 170 170 170 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 134 139 140 141 144 146 143 147 147 151 164 163 155 150 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 55 56 55 57 57 59 61 61 63 65 67 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 6 5 4 4 4 3 5 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 32 14 -4 -18 -23 -29 -36 -48 -50 -78 -89 -91 -76 -75 -50 -47 -46 200 MB DIV 10 4 0 8 18 4 10 6 7 12 6 31 31 22 27 13 11 700-850 TADV -16 -15 -10 -9 -12 -11 -12 -7 -10 -6 -5 1 5 5 7 3 9 LAND (KM) 1091 981 876 795 747 493 201 100 137 222 299 333 369 273 188 212 234 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.4 20.5 21.8 22.9 23.9 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.9 53.5 55.0 56.6 58.1 61.1 63.8 66.4 68.9 71.3 73.3 74.8 76.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 14 13 13 13 12 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 27 30 47 37 54 71 73 56 67 83 75 65 60 57 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 32. 36. 37. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -23. -25. -25. -25. -22. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 12. 17. 21. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 51.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 12.7% 8.4% 6.5% 6.1% 9.1% 10.1% 15.9% Logistic: 2.8% 13.1% 6.5% 3.1% 2.6% 8.9% 10.4% 19.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 2.3% 9.3% 5.1% 3.2% 2.9% 6.0% 6.8% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 33 33 32 33 35 35 35 35 36 39 44 47 52 56 59 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 32 33 35 35 35 35 36 39 44 47 52 56 59 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 31 33 33 33 33 34 37 42 45 50 54 57 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 25 27 27 27 27 28 31 36 39 44 48 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT