* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122015 08/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 40 47 53 58 60 61 60 58 56 56 56 59 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 40 47 53 58 60 61 60 58 56 56 56 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 47 49 49 47 44 40 36 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 7 4 4 2 2 4 9 15 16 24 29 33 34 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -5 -5 -2 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 0 -3 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 146 156 161 169 158 99 121 137 224 248 272 279 273 275 275 269 277 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 26.9 27.3 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 149 149 149 148 148 146 142 139 137 137 132 137 137 132 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 57 58 61 62 65 66 65 66 65 67 66 67 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 49 52 57 59 58 53 41 31 18 14 10 -2 -16 -30 -44 -61 -48 200 MB DIV 52 53 69 65 37 27 36 38 10 16 4 0 -20 5 4 24 19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 2 2 4 8 4 4 5 6 LAND (KM) 2408 2458 2414 2343 2272 2085 1865 1638 1416 1219 1031 853 683 513 371 289 246 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.4 14.1 15.0 15.8 16.5 17.3 18.2 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.1 132.7 133.2 133.9 134.6 136.3 138.2 140.1 142.0 143.7 145.3 146.8 148.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 19 16 15 19 18 15 13 14 19 17 20 7 14 13 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 31. 30. 28. 26. 26. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 132.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122015 TWELVE 08/25/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 19.5% 16.9% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 28.9% Logistic: 0.8% 7.6% 3.8% 1.7% 1.5% 4.9% 11.5% 7.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% Consensus: 3.1% 9.2% 6.9% 4.9% 0.5% 1.6% 9.3% 12.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 TWELVE 08/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##