* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 44 49 54 54 56 59 61 68 76 82 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 44 49 54 54 56 59 61 68 76 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 27 29 31 33 35 38 39 42 44 47 53 64 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 0 6 8 14 20 20 19 18 21 20 21 8 7 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -2 -3 -6 -1 -2 -4 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 10 15 188 252 264 261 269 289 286 286 280 277 270 279 247 263 253 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.5 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 147 147 148 149 151 154 156 155 153 148 148 150 155 154 154 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 61 60 58 58 58 60 61 66 69 72 72 72 71 71 72 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 15 16 18 20 20 23 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -39 -38 -37 -42 -35 -16 -7 20 38 43 41 36 39 46 59 63 200 MB DIV 15 -6 -9 -13 -9 17 9 19 22 26 15 44 33 22 12 60 32 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -4 -1 0 0 1 2 5 3 3 5 LAND (KM) 828 820 813 820 828 864 933 1003 1083 1163 1244 1346 1438 1694 1939 1980 2015 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.3 167.4 167.4 167.5 167.7 168.1 168.8 169.5 170.3 171.1 171.9 172.9 173.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 8 11 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 43 43 42 42 43 43 45 46 49 51 46 32 27 33 44 50 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 41. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 10. 12. 11. 12. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 14. 19. 24. 29. 29. 31. 34. 36. 43. 51. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.4 167.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.81 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##