* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 27 33 39 45 50 54 54 56 57 61 67 75 80 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 27 33 39 45 50 54 54 56 57 61 67 75 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 23 23 23 25 28 31 34 37 39 42 44 47 55 68 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 7 1 6 14 20 25 20 22 20 23 20 11 7 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -6 -4 -5 -1 -4 -2 -1 -3 -1 1 0 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 14 5 14 327 254 262 263 280 286 283 282 285 282 291 263 268 248 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.3 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 147 148 149 150 152 154 155 154 149 149 156 153 154 154 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 59 59 60 62 66 70 72 73 74 76 70 69 70 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 14 16 17 19 19 21 23 27 29 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -19 -33 -36 -37 -45 -27 -14 7 26 39 30 37 33 48 52 64 200 MB DIV 24 11 1 5 -2 2 17 24 29 31 22 15 39 1 31 28 49 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -4 -3 -1 0 3 3 1 3 7 8 LAND (KM) 844 827 813 799 787 793 817 857 928 1030 1142 1265 1378 1876 1944 1984 2007 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.3 167.4 167.4 167.4 167.4 167.6 167.9 168.3 169.0 170.0 171.1 172.3 173.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 3 3 2 1 3 4 5 6 6 13 13 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 44 43 42 42 41 40 37 38 38 42 50 35 23 44 45 49 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. 39. 41. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 11. 11. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 29. 31. 32. 36. 42. 50. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.1 167.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##