* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 42 43 44 46 47 49 50 53 55 58 61 65 66 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 42 43 44 46 47 49 50 53 55 58 61 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 42 43 44 44 45 47 49 52 56 61 69 76 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 10 12 14 15 14 16 15 19 16 16 10 15 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 1 2 -2 0 0 -1 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 -5 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 8 342 337 304 294 307 297 300 296 312 292 307 294 294 267 265 265 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.9 30.8 30.5 29.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 136 135 140 143 146 151 149 152 152 157 168 171 171 165 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 134 136 134 140 141 142 146 144 144 141 145 155 170 159 144 133 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 61 61 58 55 54 56 56 57 59 63 66 68 70 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 5 5 6 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 64 47 28 13 0 -10 -20 -28 -30 -22 -38 -53 -75 -78 -66 -41 -36 200 MB DIV 30 10 3 -2 4 30 -4 3 20 14 3 -2 26 29 30 9 18 700-850 TADV -10 -13 -20 -17 -7 -12 -9 -7 -7 -5 -5 -6 -4 1 3 9 4 LAND (KM) 1137 1098 1083 985 877 717 520 245 35 109 106 183 237 319 336 274 265 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.8 20.7 21.5 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.6 50.2 51.8 53.3 54.9 58.1 60.9 63.4 65.9 68.3 70.4 72.2 74.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 16 15 13 12 13 11 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 13 16 18 27 46 37 50 59 65 65 49 70 75 71 60 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 32. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -25. -25. -25. -23. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 18. 21. 25. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.5 48.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.3% 10.2% 7.6% 7.1% 10.6% 12.2% 18.4% Logistic: 4.5% 18.4% 11.4% 4.2% 2.5% 8.9% 9.6% 21.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.3% 5.8% Consensus: 3.3% 12.6% 7.5% 3.9% 3.2% 6.7% 7.7% 15.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/25/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 41 41 42 43 44 46 47 49 50 53 55 58 61 65 66 18HR AGO 40 39 39 39 40 41 42 44 45 47 48 51 53 56 59 63 64 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 37 38 39 41 42 44 45 48 50 53 56 60 61 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 33 35 36 38 39 42 44 47 50 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT