* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/25/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 29 36 45 52 58 61 61 62 64 66 71 78 84 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 29 36 45 52 58 61 61 62 64 66 71 78 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 27 32 36 40 43 45 47 49 55 64 76 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 11 8 2 9 14 22 23 19 18 22 22 7 2 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -6 -4 -3 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 7 3 1 12 342 264 270 261 271 259 267 262 266 258 238 269 277 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 153 153 152 150 150 149 148 147 146 149 154 153 153 154 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 11 11 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 62 60 61 61 62 63 68 69 72 72 67 65 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 15 16 18 20 19 20 22 22 24 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -13 -21 -32 -37 -39 -34 -16 1 27 45 52 67 71 77 82 94 200 MB DIV 31 13 8 5 8 14 16 37 32 29 33 10 32 -13 20 8 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -1 0 -1 1 1 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 882 866 854 842 832 820 826 850 885 942 1011 1090 1171 1650 1901 1997 2076 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.5 20.7 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.1 167.3 167.4 167.5 167.6 167.7 167.9 168.2 168.6 169.2 169.9 170.7 171.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 13 16 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 48 51 51 49 45 40 37 35 32 31 32 36 36 35 41 48 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. -7. -8. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 4. 11. 20. 27. 33. 36. 36. 37. 39. 42. 47. 53. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.2 167.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.2% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 1.6% 2.2% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/25/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##