* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 72 79 89 92 88 74 56 40 34 27 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 72 79 89 92 88 74 56 40 34 27 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 69 74 79 75 65 53 38 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 18 20 22 17 13 4 17 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 5 5 4 -2 -7 0 3 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 254 259 241 220 205 208 297 229 176 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.5 27.2 26.0 24.5 21.6 16.4 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 147 150 137 125 111 82 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.3 -1.0 -0.2 -1.1 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 5 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 64 65 67 66 56 56 48 47 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 15 18 19 17 12 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -24 0 38 64 82 75 73 79 134 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 34 55 83 93 53 59 75 55 47 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 4 7 14 11 29 20 10 5 -16 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1912 1842 1780 1732 1694 1740 1975 2312 2188 1646 1121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.4 25.3 26.3 27.3 29.7 32.3 35.0 38.3 42.2 46.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 178.8 178.1 177.3 176.6 175.9 175.3 176.4 178.6 181.5 185.2 188.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 15 18 22 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 12 12 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -15. -16. -17. -20. -22. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 4. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 15. 13. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 29. 39. 42. 38. 24. 6. -10. -16. -23. -32. -40. -47. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 23.4 178.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 8.1% 5.1% 3.8% 2.6% 0.6% 3.6% 1.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##