* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/24/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 44 53 60 64 64 65 68 67 71 75 80 86 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 44 53 60 64 64 65 68 67 71 75 80 86 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 48 52 55 58 59 61 65 74 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 15 13 9 3 7 11 19 16 19 26 10 6 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -6 -4 -6 -6 -4 -6 -3 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 16 21 19 20 23 26 19 317 282 292 290 286 305 306 298 303 310 SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 151 147 146 146 148 150 151 152 152 152 151 152 153 149 149 151 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 67 66 64 63 62 64 65 66 69 72 67 59 61 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 14 16 16 18 19 23 27 850 MB ENV VOR 39 25 17 5 -7 -30 -37 -46 -28 -20 -3 23 28 35 39 48 61 200 MB DIV 58 45 34 28 27 29 -2 -3 23 18 22 30 20 -8 -12 3 43 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1038 1043 1052 1041 1032 986 951 929 903 890 886 898 917 1528 1869 2003 2092 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.8 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.5 167.0 167.5 167.7 167.9 168.0 168.1 168.1 168.1 168.2 168.4 168.7 169.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 4 14 21 11 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 37 34 35 40 51 57 56 52 48 41 34 27 28 42 51 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 386 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 7. 8. 8. 11. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 23. 30. 34. 34. 35. 38. 37. 41. 45. 50. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.6 166.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 105.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.8% 12.4% 5.4% 2.5% 3.1% 5.4% 15.7% 21.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 1.1% 5.2% 4.8% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/24/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##