* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 60 66 75 82 86 83 70 59 56 51 44 38 32 29 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 60 66 75 82 86 83 70 59 56 51 44 38 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 64 72 75 74 64 50 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 11 14 16 20 22 16 7 11 16 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 6 6 5 1 -6 -1 -3 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 260 261 265 246 219 197 329 306 236 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.0 25.2 24.1 19.1 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 149 149 149 147 135 117 107 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -52.6 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 61 64 67 61 50 52 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 12 13 16 18 18 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -29 -30 -14 33 85 97 79 78 68 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 26 20 44 95 46 52 33 61 31 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 5 6 17 31 26 23 23 6 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1974 1921 1875 1810 1752 1705 1838 2090 2462 1995 1524 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 23.2 24.1 25.0 25.9 28.1 30.6 33.3 36.4 39.8 43.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.4 178.9 178.4 177.7 176.9 175.7 175.9 177.1 179.4 182.6 185.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 16 19 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 24 19 21 18 11 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -7. -12. -13. -14. -15. -18. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 2. 3. 7. 11. 12. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 30. 37. 41. 38. 25. 14. 11. 6. -1. -7. -13. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.3 179.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 12.7% 8.4% 7.2% 4.6% 1.3% 4.3% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 5.6% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##