* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 44 48 56 63 68 69 66 65 63 61 58 56 56 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 44 48 56 63 68 69 66 65 63 61 58 56 56 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 46 49 51 50 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 11 10 13 23 22 9 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -2 0 8 7 -2 -3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 290 295 287 274 276 231 204 177 10 314 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.4 28.1 28.1 26.5 24.7 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 156 156 149 146 146 130 112 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 56 57 61 63 67 58 50 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 9 12 13 14 17 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 3 -10 -23 -27 -9 55 85 89 58 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 5 11 18 27 40 37 68 54 52 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 0 4 6 17 9 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1996 1995 1998 1963 1932 1817 1752 1796 1981 2262 2398 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.6 22.4 24.4 26.7 29.2 31.7 34.2 36.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 179.2 179.4 179.5 179.3 179.0 177.8 176.7 176.2 176.9 178.6 180.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 12 13 12 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 47 45 38 31 20 11 10 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 21. 28. 33. 34. 31. 30. 28. 26. 23. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.1 179.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.3% 10.3% 6.5% 3.6% 3.1% 5.3% 2.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##