* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 51 59 67 71 74 76 78 80 80 82 85 84 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 51 59 67 71 74 76 78 80 80 82 85 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 39 45 51 59 69 77 84 88 89 91 93 98 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 11 10 9 7 5 7 11 11 18 15 10 6 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -6 -3 -5 -1 -4 0 2 3 3 -2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 304 308 324 333 329 334 353 298 262 268 260 256 260 289 333 342 329 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 150 149 150 148 149 149 148 148 148 148 150 152 151 147 148 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 67 67 68 69 65 64 63 64 62 60 62 59 60 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 16 17 19 20 20 21 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 15 5 3 -7 -16 -24 -26 -17 -2 26 28 31 13 24 38 200 MB DIV 2 2 8 35 31 49 43 20 14 5 13 7 11 -17 -13 -23 -13 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 2 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 755 741 731 722 720 691 637 586 542 497 444 384 340 607 1017 1136 1230 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.5 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 161.6 162.6 163.5 164.0 164.6 165.0 164.9 164.7 164.5 164.2 163.8 163.4 163.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 8 7 6 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 6 15 12 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 50 55 57 60 62 59 54 49 44 41 42 43 30 47 47 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34. 36. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 29. 37. 41. 44. 46. 48. 50. 50. 52. 55. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 161.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.5% 11.4% 4.7% 2.3% 2.1% 6.6% 26.5% 24.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 10.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 8.8% 19.8% 17.7% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##