* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 43 42 42 45 48 49 50 55 59 62 63 64 63 64 64 V (KT) LAND 50 45 43 42 42 45 48 48 48 54 57 61 62 62 62 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 50 44 40 38 37 35 34 33 33 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 19 20 16 19 16 16 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 236 224 221 229 221 223 246 249 253 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 142 145 145 146 148 151 151 156 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 139 142 141 142 143 144 144 146 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 37 37 38 39 39 39 39 38 39 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 5 4 2 0 -6 -22 -28 -60 -81 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 5 9 2 7 -1 -7 -26 -2 11 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -4 -9 -6 -2 -2 -1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 822 740 678 647 583 307 30 63 29 133 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.3 18.1 19.0 20.0 21.1 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.3 56.6 57.9 59.2 60.5 63.0 65.5 68.0 70.3 72.6 74.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 30 39 47 40 34 47 57 70 44 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -8. -8. -5. -2. -1. -0. 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 13. 14. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.7 55.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.49 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 487.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 5.9% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/23/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 45 43 42 42 45 48 48 48 54 57 61 62 62 62 62 63 18HR AGO 50 49 47 46 46 49 52 52 52 58 61 65 66 66 66 66 67 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 48 51 51 51 57 60 64 65 65 65 65 66 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 43 46 46 46 52 55 59 60 60 60 60 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT