* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 57 67 73 77 82 85 88 90 92 92 90 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 57 67 73 77 82 85 88 90 92 92 90 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 39 44 51 59 68 79 88 93 97 99 100 100 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 14 13 10 7 6 6 10 13 14 13 10 15 21 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 -5 -5 -6 -6 -4 -1 4 4 5 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 321 304 311 330 340 322 317 271 268 265 253 250 243 261 257 260 248 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.3 28.4 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 152 151 152 152 151 151 151 150 151 150 150 145 146 142 138 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -52.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 63 65 65 65 67 70 69 69 67 67 67 67 68 69 68 65 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 17 19 23 25 26 28 31 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 40 35 31 22 21 18 1 -7 -6 13 36 61 68 60 57 39 35 200 MB DIV 4 10 7 12 39 61 52 28 7 15 27 22 13 21 21 -22 31 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 1 1 1 2 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 1 LAND (KM) 642 699 694 676 673 645 600 534 485 441 393 349 297 247 366 468 614 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 160.1 161.3 162.4 163.2 164.0 164.6 164.7 164.4 164.2 163.9 163.5 163.2 162.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 7 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 5 6 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 53 60 62 62 57 51 45 44 46 47 49 25 23 14 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 36. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 15. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 27. 37. 43. 47. 52. 55. 58. 60. 62. 62. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 160.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.2% 12.8% 5.1% 2.3% 2.4% 6.2% 25.9% 27.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 4.0% 23.1% 33.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##