* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 25 27 34 46 56 64 70 75 79 80 83 85 83 84 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 25 27 34 46 56 64 70 75 79 80 83 85 83 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 25 28 33 38 45 53 59 66 73 76 77 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 10 10 5 7 3 8 11 14 12 11 16 19 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 0 -4 0 0 2 2 4 3 6 3 SHEAR DIR 10 346 313 322 332 326 326 310 280 255 235 227 241 248 248 238 237 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.2 28.4 28.1 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 155 154 152 152 152 151 152 152 151 150 148 144 147 145 139 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 68 68 70 69 69 67 68 70 69 68 65 64 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 12 14 14 16 19 22 25 26 28 30 31 33 850 MB ENV VOR 51 39 37 30 16 10 -1 -6 -5 17 55 73 85 80 82 53 47 200 MB DIV -4 7 9 18 30 57 64 45 30 8 44 27 17 17 3 -5 18 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 1 1 3 2 0 1 3 8 8 14 19 LAND (KM) 648 686 754 750 740 713 668 622 555 467 402 340 273 190 269 378 563 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.5 20.0 20.3 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 158.8 160.2 161.5 162.5 163.5 164.5 164.8 164.8 164.5 164.0 163.6 163.1 162.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 11 9 5 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 41 39 49 57 62 63 59 53 46 45 49 49 36 25 16 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 14. 14. 15. 16. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 2. 9. 21. 31. 39. 45. 50. 54. 56. 58. 60. 58. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 158.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 2.3% 14.4% 5.1% 2.1% 1.7% 5.2% 18.7% 24.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 10.8% 8.4% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##