* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 29 37 44 51 57 63 66 68 57 50 42 42 45 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 29 37 44 51 57 63 66 68 57 50 42 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 26 25 25 26 29 32 35 38 40 40 35 30 23 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 8 7 11 6 11 14 19 15 16 16 29 11 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -5 -1 1 5 11 4 1 -1 -3 6 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 288 296 272 273 279 242 248 253 238 255 331 318 220 170 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.2 27.4 26.8 26.1 18.1 12.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 156 154 155 156 154 149 147 138 132 130 69 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -51.0 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 56 56 56 57 59 63 66 67 69 68 53 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 14 15 17 11 8 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 12 13 9 0 -23 -36 -7 47 67 95 71 60 80 139 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 23 11 -5 6 10 2 41 68 40 -8 24 26 33 67 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 3 1 2 2 10 22 35 22 18 45 48 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1909 1926 1945 1959 1975 1973 1901 1814 1740 1712 1771 1913 2076 1897 1257 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.0 19.6 21.0 22.5 24.1 25.8 27.8 29.8 31.8 33.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.8 178.2 178.5 178.8 179.1 179.3 178.7 177.8 176.8 175.9 175.6 176.0 176.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 10 27 36 28 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 41 41 42 45 44 29 24 19 10 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. 30. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 5. 8. 0. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 7. 14. 21. 27. 33. 36. 38. 27. 20. 12. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.2 177.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.0% 6.5% 2.7% 1.4% 1.0% 3.0% 2.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##