* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOKE CP042015 08/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 47 52 56 60 63 65 70 73 67 55 51 50 52 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 47 52 56 60 63 65 70 73 67 55 51 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 44 47 50 54 57 60 61 60 53 45 35 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 7 9 9 9 13 18 23 14 14 19 20 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -1 -4 -4 0 2 4 0 0 -1 -1 1 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 300 288 279 271 289 240 254 252 240 242 284 296 315 229 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.3 28.1 27.4 26.9 22.8 13.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 153 154 155 153 155 155 153 147 145 137 138 98 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -51.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.5 -1.5 -0.6 -1.0 -0.8 -0.5 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 4 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 57 57 56 57 58 60 62 65 67 72 75 61 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 7 9 12 14 11 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 13 13 5 -17 -27 -24 17 58 58 72 45 83 194 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 18 20 9 -10 9 7 4 22 22 61 8 17 28 57 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 3 2 18 16 21 19 28 100 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1860 1872 1886 1910 1937 1952 1914 1850 1781 1722 1710 1749 1814 2228 1476 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.0 20.3 21.8 23.2 24.7 26.3 28.0 29.7 31.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.2 177.5 177.8 178.2 178.6 179.0 178.8 178.2 177.4 176.5 175.8 175.4 175.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 24 38 33 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 41 40 40 42 47 37 25 26 13 10 5 3 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 24. 25. 24. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -9. -9. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 3. 5. 1. -5. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 25. 30. 33. 27. 15. 11. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.9 177.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 3.7% 13.0% 7.5% 4.3% 4.3% 8.5% 20.0% 2.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 LOKE 08/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##