* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 30 36 44 52 57 61 61 63 62 68 71 76 80 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 30 36 44 52 57 61 61 63 62 68 71 76 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 29 30 32 36 40 44 49 54 57 62 66 71 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 8 7 12 8 9 7 14 18 22 27 13 6 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -6 -5 -5 -4 -5 -3 0 1 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 48 28 12 351 322 333 357 341 311 291 281 281 273 260 255 256 271 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.6 28.2 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 155 154 151 150 152 154 155 155 148 144 157 151 149 149 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 63 64 66 66 67 71 75 75 75 74 75 76 75 66 64 67 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 15 16 21 21 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 78 63 51 40 36 16 10 -1 -7 -16 -4 12 29 33 30 47 52 200 MB DIV 21 14 22 42 35 32 54 27 25 16 5 10 38 52 5 7 5 700-850 TADV -8 -4 0 -1 -1 0 1 2 2 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 648 627 644 682 745 738 677 606 516 416 308 194 82 401 585 667 773 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.5 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.5 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.0 157.5 158.9 160.2 161.4 163.0 163.6 163.8 163.6 163.0 162.4 161.6 160.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 10 7 5 4 4 4 5 5 4 12 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 48 51 41 39 54 61 60 55 53 57 48 33 50 40 39 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 32. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 7. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. 6. 14. 23. 27. 31. 31. 33. 32. 38. 41. 46. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 156.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.7% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##