* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KILO CP032015 08/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 38 43 49 56 62 67 70 75 76 81 83 86 85 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 38 43 49 56 62 67 70 75 76 81 83 86 85 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 41 45 50 54 59 64 68 71 74 79 85 91 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 8 5 6 5 8 8 10 17 21 18 20 17 20 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 0 -2 -2 -6 -5 -6 -5 -6 -1 0 1 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 81 62 35 8 342 305 290 280 267 276 271 267 239 245 247 271 306 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.5 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 156 156 153 153 152 151 153 153 152 147 142 146 148 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 67 66 69 73 77 78 76 78 77 77 73 66 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 15 17 19 22 23 27 29 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR 78 67 60 57 45 24 13 11 15 5 -4 17 31 29 55 53 68 200 MB DIV 44 23 28 33 41 41 46 65 53 54 56 51 36 71 33 29 13 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 3 3 3 3 8 7 10 4 10 1 3 0 LAND (KM) 871 745 634 549 501 527 591 495 408 328 229 138 43 162 451 459 485 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.5 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 151.0 152.4 153.8 155.2 156.6 159.2 160.8 161.5 161.7 161.5 161.1 160.6 160.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 15 14 14 14 11 8 5 4 4 5 4 4 10 7 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 27 29 38 41 41 43 49 52 49 37 29 33 32 30 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. 31. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 12. 13. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 40. 41. 46. 48. 51. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.5 151.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP032015 KILO 08/21/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 2.3% 5.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.6% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032015 KILO 08/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##