* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR CP042015 08/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 38 40 44 49 52 54 54 54 55 57 55 58 60 63 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 38 40 44 49 52 54 54 54 55 57 55 58 60 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 39 42 43 44 46 47 47 48 46 43 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 11 10 11 7 7 7 10 14 19 25 39 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -5 -4 -3 -2 -4 -3 -4 -1 2 15 5 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 275 268 272 285 287 273 261 242 273 300 328 340 358 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 149 150 152 152 151 150 152 158 158 158 159 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 57 55 54 56 55 56 57 58 56 60 56 58 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 49 44 37 27 18 0 -6 -14 -15 -18 2 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -7 7 5 3 14 -4 -1 -21 -28 -21 -18 -7 -18 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 1 0 -1 1 0 0 0 -1 6 4 19 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1913 1907 1901 1915 1930 1976 2024 2060 2095 2123 2102 2034 1984 1924 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.8 20.6 21.6 22.6 23.7 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.1 177.2 177.3 177.6 177.9 178.6 179.3 179.8 180.3 180.7 180.6 180.0 179.5 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 8 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 48 47 47 46 42 39 38 38 36 36 29 24 26 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. 36. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -5. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 14. 19. 22. 24. 24. 24. 25. 27. 25. 28. 30. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.4 177.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 24.6% 46.6% 31.2% 20.2% 24.0% 25.0% 34.4% 23.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 43.4% 5.4% 1.8% 7.1% 9.0% 11.0% 3.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP042015 FOUR 08/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##