* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 54 58 65 67 74 76 78 80 84 85 87 87 89 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 54 58 65 67 74 76 78 80 84 85 87 87 89 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 49 51 55 61 65 70 74 75 77 79 82 85 89 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 7 5 7 7 3 2 4 5 6 5 2 5 8 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 4 0 -3 -3 -2 -3 -2 -1 2 3 1 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 18 63 72 88 76 141 356 200 277 226 271 203 250 213 236 234 255 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.6 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 127 127 126 125 125 129 130 132 139 140 144 146 147 148 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 124 122 121 120 120 124 126 127 135 136 138 140 142 143 139 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 11 13 12 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 65 59 56 52 51 46 43 39 37 39 42 46 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 16 17 16 18 15 17 16 15 15 17 16 17 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR 15 20 23 16 8 12 24 21 22 26 25 20 19 18 40 42 45 200 MB DIV 85 83 83 49 11 -1 -9 -6 3 21 22 9 -9 3 3 31 11 700-850 TADV -14 -10 -9 -6 -5 -1 -2 0 3 -1 0 -6 0 0 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1395 1333 1276 1236 1202 1137 1071 1038 1018 970 793 664 619 431 208 101 109 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.7 41.6 42.5 43.3 44.0 45.6 47.4 49.2 51.1 53.1 55.4 57.8 60.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 10 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 9 10 11 13 21 14 14 18 27 36 43 31 37 63 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -5. -4. -5. -8. -9. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 20. 22. 29. 31. 33. 35. 39. 40. 42. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.1 40.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.5% 11.0% 8.1% 7.6% 11.4% 13.0% 21.9% Logistic: 3.0% 11.8% 5.7% 2.8% 1.3% 4.3% 7.9% 5.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 6.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.0% 1.9% 0.2% Consensus: 3.1% 11.7% 6.0% 3.7% 3.0% 5.6% 7.6% 9.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/19/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 54 58 65 67 74 76 78 80 84 85 87 87 89 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 51 55 62 64 71 73 75 77 81 82 84 84 86 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 46 50 57 59 66 68 70 72 76 77 79 79 81 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 42 49 51 58 60 62 64 68 69 71 71 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT