* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 61 63 67 73 77 80 84 88 90 94 95 98 97 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 61 63 67 73 77 80 84 88 90 94 95 98 97 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 57 60 63 66 71 75 78 83 89 93 98 107 108 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 8 6 8 4 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 5 10 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 3 4 2 -1 -5 -1 -4 -3 -1 -3 1 0 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 72 30 83 94 79 121 149 27 241 40 258 37 145 47 219 259 264 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 128 126 125 124 123 125 128 132 133 139 142 145 148 148 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 124 121 119 118 118 120 123 127 130 136 139 143 146 146 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 64 66 68 66 62 58 58 56 53 50 44 43 42 43 47 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 16 16 16 17 16 17 18 17 16 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 19 23 17 5 12 7 17 19 19 24 19 32 40 56 52 200 MB DIV 110 84 81 86 67 5 -25 -12 -4 26 7 22 -7 15 0 21 27 700-850 TADV -15 -13 -8 -7 -5 -2 0 0 1 1 -2 -1 -2 0 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1507 1443 1383 1338 1298 1243 1184 1105 1042 1004 955 735 572 502 377 200 156 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.2 14.6 14.8 15.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.6 40.4 41.3 42.0 42.7 43.9 45.3 47.0 48.9 50.9 53.1 55.6 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 8 8 9 12 22 15 14 18 31 48 47 31 57 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 22. 28. 32. 35. 39. 43. 45. 49. 50. 53. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.3 39.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.53 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 169.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 23.9% 13.4% 9.1% 8.4% 12.2% 15.0% 25.2% Logistic: 7.9% 27.7% 14.0% 8.2% 4.1% 13.8% 21.8% 23.8% Bayesian: 8.9% 27.7% 9.7% 1.8% 1.0% 8.6% 12.0% 1.4% Consensus: 7.9% 26.4% 12.4% 6.3% 4.5% 11.5% 16.3% 16.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/19/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 57 61 63 67 73 77 80 84 88 90 94 95 98 97 18HR AGO 45 44 48 52 56 58 62 68 72 75 79 83 85 89 90 93 92 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 49 51 55 61 65 68 72 76 78 82 83 86 85 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 41 45 51 55 58 62 66 68 72 73 76 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT