* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL042015 08/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 63 68 75 80 87 91 93 91 91 92 97 98 103 102 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 63 68 75 80 87 91 93 91 91 92 97 98 103 102 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 62 67 74 82 88 91 91 90 88 90 93 98 102 104 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 6 7 7 7 5 8 4 7 4 8 4 4 1 2 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 2 0 0 0 -2 -5 -4 -5 -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 342 44 43 67 87 76 137 136 141 145 157 186 161 334 270 287 294 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 132 133 134 131 129 128 130 131 133 135 137 141 145 146 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 128 128 129 126 124 122 125 127 130 132 134 138 141 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 68 66 56 54 48 47 46 41 40 39 39 39 41 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 12 12 14 14 15 13 14 13 14 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -1 1 4 17 16 11 21 22 31 32 31 34 36 34 30 31 200 MB DIV 107 106 75 62 59 10 -7 -15 3 3 -7 -13 4 7 23 13 27 700-850 TADV -15 -13 -11 -7 -4 -1 1 0 0 3 -2 1 -4 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1567 1549 1483 1434 1388 1322 1255 1199 1115 1049 990 887 685 551 502 400 225 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.4 12.8 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.3 39.1 40.0 40.7 41.4 42.7 44.1 45.6 47.3 49.2 51.3 53.7 56.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 10 10 11 10 12 18 27 16 16 22 36 53 49 32 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 3. 4. 1. 1. -1. -0. -4. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 30. 35. 42. 46. 48. 46. 46. 47. 52. 53. 58. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.1 38.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.72 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.51 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 38.2% 25.4% 12.0% 9.5% 20.3% 24.5% 34.0% Logistic: 13.1% 48.8% 34.3% 21.3% 9.7% 22.1% 17.2% 8.1% Bayesian: 10.8% 30.9% 18.3% 3.3% 2.0% 11.9% 15.1% 1.3% Consensus: 11.6% 39.3% 26.0% 12.2% 7.1% 18.1% 19.0% 14.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 DANNY 08/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 DANNY 08/19/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 57 63 68 75 80 87 91 93 91 91 92 97 98 103 102 18HR AGO 45 44 50 56 61 68 73 80 84 86 84 84 85 90 91 96 95 12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 52 59 64 71 75 77 75 75 76 81 82 87 86 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 47 52 59 63 65 63 63 64 69 70 75 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT