* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042015 08/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 51 56 64 69 75 81 83 85 83 86 88 91 93 92 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 51 56 64 69 75 81 83 85 83 86 88 91 93 92 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 48 52 60 68 74 79 81 81 80 79 80 83 86 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 6 5 5 5 8 5 6 7 9 10 1 3 5 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 3 1 0 0 -2 -5 -6 -4 -5 -7 1 0 2 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 338 29 47 40 66 105 122 170 166 182 187 219 137 278 347 309 322 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 131 130 133 134 131 128 128 130 132 133 134 137 140 143 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 127 126 128 128 125 121 122 126 128 129 130 133 136 139 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 63 66 65 64 66 61 52 49 45 43 40 37 38 40 46 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 10 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -12 -8 -5 0 7 6 27 25 41 36 42 34 21 12 2 4 200 MB DIV 75 92 90 70 52 38 -20 -15 -23 -21 14 -6 -8 -1 -1 -12 22 700-850 TADV -14 -14 -11 -9 -5 -2 0 0 0 2 3 0 2 1 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1558 1562 1565 1515 1456 1380 1329 1293 1228 1133 1043 965 897 709 547 468 500 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.9 12.4 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.0 37.9 38.8 39.5 40.3 41.5 42.6 43.8 45.3 47.0 49.1 51.4 53.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 13 11 11 11 10 10 17 28 16 17 21 34 48 64 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 29. 34. 40. 46. 48. 50. 48. 51. 53. 56. 58. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.8 37.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042015 FOUR 08/18/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 26.0% 15.2% 9.2% 8.6% 12.3% 14.4% 24.8% Logistic: 8.1% 35.8% 24.9% 14.5% 5.1% 13.6% 10.6% 3.6% Bayesian: 3.9% 12.9% 9.9% 1.2% 0.9% 5.3% 10.2% 0.8% Consensus: 6.3% 24.9% 16.7% 8.3% 4.8% 10.4% 11.8% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042015 FOUR 08/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042015 FOUR 08/18/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 45 51 56 64 69 75 81 83 85 83 86 88 91 93 92 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 50 58 63 69 75 77 79 77 80 82 85 87 86 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 42 50 55 61 67 69 71 69 72 74 77 79 78 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 38 43 49 55 57 59 57 60 62 65 67 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT