* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112015 08/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 26 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 10 16 19 21 32 19 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 2 2 2 1 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 153 149 149 144 146 137 137 164 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 24.9 25.0 24.8 24.5 23.8 23.9 24.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 114 115 112 109 101 101 102 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 52 49 48 45 47 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 9 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 51 44 36 21 4 0 2 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 54 52 49 23 24 11 19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 5 -2 0 -7 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 894 907 943 1007 1088 1191 1225 1282 1352 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.3 23.2 24.0 24.8 26.0 27.0 27.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.6 122.9 124.2 125.4 127.7 129.6 131.2 132.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 12. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -7. -13. -16. -18. -18. -19. -21. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 2. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -16. -19. -21. -23. -26. -29. -32. -37. -40. -45. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.3 120.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112015 ELEVEN 08/17/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112015 ELEVEN 08/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##