* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112015 08/16/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 29 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 29 28 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 6 8 14 23 35 28 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 2 4 0 2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 123 136 133 145 155 143 145 145 145 148 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 27.6 26.9 25.7 24.9 24.6 24.2 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 142 135 122 114 110 106 99 99 99 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 60 56 54 52 51 48 45 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 17 15 14 13 10 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 69 69 60 45 29 7 0 -5 5 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 46 36 24 19 32 24 12 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 -1 -1 3 0 0 -3 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 767 779 785 822 861 916 1062 1137 1158 1203 1215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.0 19.9 20.8 21.7 23.5 25.0 26.4 27.5 28.5 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.6 117.8 119.1 120.3 122.8 125.2 127.4 129.2 130.8 132.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -6. -13. -17. -19. -19. -20. -22. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -7. -11. -16. -19. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -21. -28. -31. -32. -34. -37. -38. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.1 115.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112015 ELEVEN 08/16/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 15.4% 12.7% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.4% 4.4% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112015 ELEVEN 08/16/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##