* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/09/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 84 80 75 66 58 53 48 43 35 26 20 18 18 20 21 V (KT) LAND 100 92 84 80 75 66 58 53 48 43 35 26 20 18 18 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 100 91 84 78 73 65 57 51 44 38 31 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 9 15 18 23 30 29 35 37 37 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 3 4 2 9 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 284 258 253 255 251 256 244 245 248 250 254 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 141 141 139 140 137 135 134 134 135 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -50.7 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 63 62 64 67 64 61 60 61 62 60 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 16 17 17 17 16 16 15 15 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 47 32 29 24 15 8 16 17 14 17 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 59 58 56 69 89 73 70 48 30 17 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 0 3 10 7 8 4 4 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1063 963 864 779 694 562 468 395 324 250 184 134 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.4 17.3 18.1 18.8 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.2 147.0 147.8 148.5 149.1 150.0 150.6 151.1 151.7 152.4 153.1 153.8 154.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 26 36 33 22 23 24 23 21 22 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -25. -29. -33. -35. -36. -37. -38. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. -19. -24. -26. -27. -25. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -12. -15. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -20. -25. -34. -42. -47. -52. -57. -65. -74. -80. -82. -82. -80. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.6 146.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.11 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.45 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 410.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 -2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 9.8% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.6% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/09/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##