* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 97 97 95 91 81 74 63 56 46 37 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 95 97 97 97 95 91 81 74 63 56 46 37 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 95 96 95 93 91 86 79 68 57 46 37 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 1 2 9 18 26 36 40 48 50 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 6 2 -2 -1 4 4 5 1 -1 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 55 57 339 201 242 243 240 244 251 263 265 273 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 142 140 140 140 139 139 136 134 132 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 58 57 56 57 60 61 60 57 55 52 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 16 18 16 15 13 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 26 33 41 36 27 26 22 18 20 13 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 28 50 35 30 52 69 77 59 37 9 2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 0 0 3 6 12 11 8 3 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1556 1437 1319 1208 1097 908 745 609 490 386 301 253 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.9 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.5 20.2 20.7 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.6 142.7 143.7 144.7 145.6 147.1 148.3 149.3 150.2 151.1 152.0 152.7 153.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 17 23 18 20 26 32 23 22 19 15 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -10. -16. -20. -24. -27. -29. -30. -31. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -23. -24. -25. -24. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -4. -8. -9. -12. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -14. -21. -32. -39. -49. -58. -66. -67. -68. -68. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 13.5 141.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.17 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 487.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.37 -2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 21.2% 17.4% 13.3% 10.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.5% 28.2% 17.4% 18.3% 3.9% 5.6% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 4.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.7% 17.9% 11.8% 10.6% 4.6% 5.9% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##