* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 100 105 108 108 106 98 88 76 68 59 48 40 33 29 26 24 V (KT) LAND 90 100 105 108 108 106 98 88 76 68 59 48 40 33 29 26 24 V (KT) LGEM 90 103 108 109 108 103 95 86 75 63 51 42 34 29 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 5 3 1 8 17 24 35 34 39 39 41 42 46 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 4 -4 -3 1 4 0 4 2 1 2 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 80 79 92 76 57 304 224 239 232 243 249 259 265 272 273 287 288 SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 142 141 142 144 140 141 140 138 137 134 130 129 130 132 132 132 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -52.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 60 60 58 57 60 61 60 58 54 50 50 49 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 17 18 17 17 15 14 13 10 9 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 22 24 18 19 19 25 19 19 18 20 23 5 2 -2 5 13 16 200 MB DIV 6 22 14 14 29 14 29 58 70 49 38 -10 0 -14 -1 0 -33 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 5 12 11 9 7 3 1 0 0 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1839 1717 1595 1483 1372 1159 966 787 636 524 439 362 309 249 191 129 49 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.9 15.7 16.6 17.6 18.6 19.4 20.2 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 139.0 140.1 141.2 142.2 143.2 145.0 146.6 148.0 149.1 149.9 150.6 151.4 152.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 9 13 21 16 22 34 24 21 15 11 10 12 14 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. -25. -27. -28. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 10. 14. 15. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 15. 18. 18. 16. 8. -2. -14. -22. -31. -42. -50. -57. -61. -64. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 12.9 139.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 10.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.49 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 400.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 58.3% 27.7% 26.8% 26.3% 12.5% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 62.2% 63.1% 55.0% 60.5% 26.3% 45.6% 18.8% 1.2% Bayesian: 1.4% 4.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 40.6% 31.8% 27.5% 29.1% 13.0% 20.8% 6.3% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##