* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 73 74 79 80 79 78 71 63 55 47 38 31 26 22 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 73 74 79 80 79 78 71 63 55 47 38 31 26 22 V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 72 75 79 81 80 77 69 59 50 40 33 28 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 5 4 2 4 11 19 25 35 43 45 49 48 46 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 4 5 0 -4 -4 -3 4 1 -1 -3 -5 -1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 63 71 82 81 79 129 237 239 237 236 254 262 266 261 269 269 273 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 143 140 142 143 138 140 140 138 137 132 128 127 128 130 132 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 61 61 62 62 59 55 56 58 60 57 56 51 47 47 46 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 16 15 16 18 17 15 14 12 10 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 21 17 18 26 26 26 23 25 20 29 14 12 15 15 19 200 MB DIV 9 27 27 25 13 23 21 41 68 76 40 -12 -14 -17 -7 0 0 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 2 4 7 8 10 3 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1990 1870 1751 1634 1517 1289 1086 908 739 603 501 439 390 361 319 262 206 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.7 19.7 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.6 138.7 139.8 140.9 141.9 143.9 145.6 147.1 148.4 149.4 150.1 150.6 151.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 22 14 9 8 11 19 19 24 34 23 21 12 9 7 8 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 14. 19. 20. 19. 18. 11. 3. -5. -13. -22. -29. -34. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.6 137.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 29.9% 22.2% 17.1% 12.1% 16.6% 15.5% 12.3% Logistic: 13.8% 42.6% 22.3% 19.2% 5.4% 17.0% 7.0% 1.8% Bayesian: 1.9% 24.2% 2.8% 1.1% 1.7% 4.2% 1.2% 0.0% Consensus: 10.6% 32.2% 15.8% 12.5% 6.4% 12.6% 7.9% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##