* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP102015 08/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 55 61 65 69 69 69 67 63 57 53 48 41 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 55 61 65 69 69 69 67 63 57 53 48 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 51 57 62 66 66 64 61 55 49 44 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 6 5 7 4 5 4 8 12 17 24 31 33 42 43 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 -3 -1 -6 -5 -3 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 84 78 81 61 39 74 360 350 315 294 278 264 254 253 261 251 254 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.9 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 149 147 141 143 138 134 134 131 130 128 130 135 134 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 64 63 63 61 57 57 54 56 58 57 56 56 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 14 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 29 33 36 35 26 28 29 22 31 21 12 3 4 8 19 26 24 200 MB DIV 9 14 18 23 25 41 22 17 37 33 32 29 18 39 29 30 10 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 3 1 -2 LAND (KM) 2410 2482 2382 2279 2176 1944 1719 1494 1286 1089 935 806 674 543 423 348 315 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.9 12.9 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.3 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.6 132.6 133.6 134.6 135.6 137.7 139.7 141.7 143.5 145.1 146.3 147.3 148.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 24 20 21 19 11 14 11 14 13 11 16 5 7 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. 24. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. -7. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 26. 30. 34. 34. 34. 32. 28. 22. 18. 13. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.7 131.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/06/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 23.3% 18.0% 13.5% 9.5% 12.7% 16.4% 16.8% Logistic: 7.2% 45.0% 20.0% 13.9% 5.9% 20.0% 11.1% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 20.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.8% 3.5% 3.7% 0.1% Consensus: 6.1% 29.6% 13.2% 9.3% 5.4% 12.1% 10.4% 7.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102015 HILDA 08/06/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##