* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 08/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 40 38 33 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 40 38 33 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 41 38 34 28 24 21 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 38 38 40 44 44 47 42 45 40 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 2 3 0 -1 0 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 258 252 254 259 256 260 257 268 270 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 28.0 27.3 27.4 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 136 136 138 138 137 138 144 137 139 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 48 47 45 47 47 48 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 16 14 11 9 9 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 24 33 33 25 3 0 -11 -18 -23 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 1 15 16 16 -1 6 22 -12 -4 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 12 9 6 7 5 7 7 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 438 361 302 251 207 150 105 195 398 666 937 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.3 25.3 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.7 151.6 152.5 153.5 154.5 156.6 158.8 160.9 163.1 165.6 168.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 10 11 14 14 13 19 20 10 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -16. -24. -34. -43. -50. -54. -57. -59. -63. -68. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -10. -12. -17. -23. -29. -37. -44. -51. -54. -55. -58. -59. -63. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.4 150.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/05/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 08/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##