* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GUILLERMO EP092015 07/30/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 59 63 73 77 77 73 70 67 64 62 60 60 58 55 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 59 63 73 77 77 73 70 67 64 62 60 60 58 55 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 54 58 65 70 68 62 56 52 48 45 44 42 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 10 10 10 12 10 10 12 12 15 18 20 26 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 4 5 3 2 4 5 1 0 -1 3 0 4 7 0 SHEAR DIR 356 344 345 342 342 301 270 256 266 272 264 249 260 260 261 260 269 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.9 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 151 152 156 154 151 142 139 136 133 130 132 135 134 135 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 71 69 71 73 75 77 79 82 83 81 80 74 71 68 62 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 19 22 23 25 24 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 17 7 1 0 -3 0 -7 -7 -1 16 19 30 20 32 27 29 22 200 MB DIV 147 126 99 95 109 83 60 101 80 58 40 62 59 54 40 44 -1 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -3 1 10 10 13 13 14 13 13 17 16 16 13 8 LAND (KM) 2354 2413 2479 2557 2580 2221 1912 1655 1433 1267 1104 968 826 691 547 427 364 LAT (DEG N) 8.8 9.3 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.9 13.0 14.1 15.1 16.0 16.9 17.7 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.8 128.2 129.5 131.0 132.5 135.6 138.2 140.3 142.1 143.4 144.7 145.8 147.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 15 13 10 9 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 22 17 19 27 30 24 10 9 11 8 4 6 11 9 10 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 6. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 23. 33. 37. 37. 33. 30. 27. 24. 22. 20. 20. 18. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 8.8 126.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/30/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -6.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 42.0% 28.8% 17.6% 11.8% 16.8% 33.9% 29.7% Logistic: 31.5% 76.8% 62.2% 48.4% 27.1% 60.8% 44.2% 45.5% Bayesian: 13.6% 75.7% 78.2% 53.5% 3.9% 65.1% 66.7% 57.7% Consensus: 19.9% 64.8% 56.4% 39.8% 14.3% 47.6% 48.3% 44.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092015 GUILLERMO 07/30/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##