* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082015 07/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 37 39 41 43 45 48 50 53 57 59 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 32 34 37 39 41 43 45 48 50 53 57 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 10 9 10 10 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 349 348 339 331 330 343 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.1 27.3 27.0 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 141 136 138 135 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 50 48 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -1 -2 -7 -17 -20 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -22 -18 -19 -11 -17 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -1 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2024 2116 2211 2186 2055 1781 1510 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.6 131.8 133.0 134.3 135.5 138.1 140.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 23 18 7 8 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. 20. 23. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 130.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082015 EIGHT 07/29/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.80 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 10.4% 9.9% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.1% 3.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082015 EIGHT 07/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##