* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082015 07/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 37 40 41 41 38 36 35 36 37 38 38 37 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 37 40 41 41 38 36 35 36 37 38 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 33 33 33 32 30 29 28 28 29 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 13 13 16 14 13 11 10 13 21 16 17 18 21 27 30 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 0 3 1 3 0 0 -4 -3 -5 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 333 340 333 341 348 342 356 323 302 309 301 282 262 254 245 249 258 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.3 27.4 27.0 26.4 26.5 26.8 26.9 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 145 148 148 138 134 129 130 133 134 138 139 141 143 145 148 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 62 60 59 57 54 52 50 48 47 47 47 49 51 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -13 -10 -5 -6 -3 -11 -13 -1 4 9 41 56 80 82 81 74 200 MB DIV -12 -12 -16 -2 -3 6 -8 -5 -5 -36 -25 -20 4 15 27 10 0 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 0 2 5 4 7 7 6 6 4 3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1778 1841 1911 1987 2066 2217 2034 1757 1461 1144 840 559 314 131 73 284 370 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.7 128.9 130.0 131.2 133.3 135.6 138.2 141.0 144.0 146.9 149.6 152.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 13 12 10 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 15 17 18 8 6 2 2 6 6 16 17 25 29 30 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 8. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 126.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082015 EIGHT 07/28/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 10.1% 10.1% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 9.5% Logistic: 0.5% 1.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.0% 3.5% 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 3.3% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082015 EIGHT 07/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##