* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 24 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 24 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 26 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 15 21 24 30 32 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 350 326 305 285 264 253 236 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.1 22.2 22.1 22.1 21.6 21.0 20.6 20.4 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 93 84 84 84 78 71 64 61 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 48 45 47 46 42 38 29 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 15 13 12 11 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 25 28 19 24 4 16 11 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -4 9 7 10 3 -5 0 -14 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 3 3 2 4 1 -4 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 553 505 475 464 468 413 372 332 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.6 25.6 26.8 27.9 29.9 31.0 31.4 31.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.6 119.1 119.6 120.0 120.5 120.6 120.5 120.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 8 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -12. -17. -22. -27. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 1. -6. -16. -25. -32. -34. -36. -38. -42. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -14. -20. -29. -40. -54. -63. -70. -76. -81. -87. -93. -99.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 23.6 118.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##