* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/18/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 18 18 14 13 10 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 3 1 0 0 -3 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 207 209 210 207 210 205 241 247 259 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 105 105 105 105 104 103 102 102 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 36 35 33 32 31 28 25 25 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 36 38 40 36 35 17 -1 -16 -37 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -20 -21 -7 -3 -9 -8 -26 -9 0 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 1 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1839 1829 1819 1819 1819 1840 1860 1852 1826 1764 1698 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.3 20.1 20.0 19.9 20.1 20.6 21.2 21.9 22.6 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.2 137.3 137.4 137.4 137.4 137.2 137.0 137.1 137.4 138.1 138.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 1 0 2 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 11. 8. 6. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -25. -28. -30. -31. -33. -35. -38. -39. -40. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.4 137.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/18/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.40 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.11 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/18/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##