* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 58 53 48 43 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 58 53 48 43 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 57 51 46 42 34 28 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 4 7 11 12 16 17 25 27 28 26 27 27 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 1 0 1 2 2 2 2 0 -2 -5 -4 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 66 54 346 349 348 312 275 251 230 229 216 216 206 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.4 25.2 24.7 23.7 22.5 22.3 22.2 21.7 21.4 21.4 21.8 22.3 22.8 22.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 116 114 109 99 87 85 84 77 72 72 77 82 88 88 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 58 57 52 49 45 39 30 27 23 21 20 23 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 26 25 23 21 18 15 13 10 9 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 66 64 68 63 49 28 6 0 -9 1 -9 -6 -11 -6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -3 11 7 -10 15 0 11 0 -11 -8 -10 -4 7 4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -1 0 -2 0 -4 9 10 0 -1 -7 -5 -7 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 465 491 527 555 594 549 550 590 616 574 598 680 762 842 889 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.4 22.9 24.5 26.3 28.1 29.4 30.1 30.1 29.4 28.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.8 115.6 116.3 117.1 117.8 119.1 120.3 121.6 122.6 123.3 123.8 124.1 124.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 9 9 10 11 9 6 3 2 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -32. -37. -40. -44. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -17. -22. -26. -28. -27. -26. -24. -23. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -17. -22. -31. -41. -51. -60. -70. -79. -85. -91. -96.-102.-106.-110. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.3 114.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.59 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##