* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 95 92 89 79 69 58 47 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 100 97 95 92 89 79 69 58 47 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 95 91 86 81 72 63 54 43 34 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 8 8 8 12 14 18 19 19 22 21 21 20 20 23 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 0 0 0 1 3 3 7 2 5 -1 -1 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 163 178 123 68 45 36 19 359 336 317 288 279 252 250 237 233 227 SST (C) 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.6 26.7 26.0 25.5 24.0 23.1 23.4 23.3 22.6 22.1 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 136 129 128 130 123 118 102 93 96 95 87 80 76 75 72 72 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 70 68 63 60 58 53 51 48 48 46 43 38 34 29 26 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 34 35 35 35 33 32 29 27 23 19 15 14 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 66 70 89 86 72 80 85 86 57 46 19 8 12 30 46 52 54 200 MB DIV 55 53 53 52 19 -9 -6 11 5 5 -19 -22 0 -6 -9 -2 0 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -5 -6 7 3 11 17 5 2 -4 -10 -9 LAND (KM) 416 409 416 443 481 546 596 664 662 676 730 730 675 627 608 598 598 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.8 21.5 22.6 23.9 25.5 26.9 28.3 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 111.8 112.4 113.1 113.8 115.4 116.9 118.5 120.0 121.3 122.4 123.3 123.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 9 9 8 7 4 1 1 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 7 4 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -27. -35. -42. -48. -53. -58. -63. -68. -73. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. -18. -22. -22. -23. -22. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -21. -31. -42. -53. -65. -77. -86. -90. -97.-102.-109.-115. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.3 111.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.05 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.50 -2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 14.9% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##