* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 103 102 101 98 90 81 72 61 48 36 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 103 102 101 98 90 81 72 61 48 36 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 101 98 95 91 82 73 63 51 41 31 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 6 8 8 10 12 17 17 21 17 23 19 22 22 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -2 -1 0 0 1 5 3 7 6 2 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 142 159 175 120 72 41 38 1 355 334 306 286 260 258 251 248 247 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.5 27.1 27.2 27.0 25.8 25.1 23.2 22.5 23.4 23.0 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 138 134 135 133 121 114 94 87 96 91 89 88 88 87 86 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -50.4 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 71 69 70 67 63 59 53 52 46 46 45 43 38 34 30 25 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 34 35 35 34 33 31 28 25 21 18 15 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 53 66 72 93 90 86 96 94 69 65 37 11 3 0 20 19 38 200 MB DIV 75 54 53 57 51 4 -2 -8 12 2 0 -19 -8 -4 -19 -13 -18 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 1 0 -3 -2 -3 1 0 14 12 13 3 -2 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 450 434 431 452 485 572 626 700 747 748 778 812 830 842 861 889 921 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.3 20.8 21.6 22.6 23.9 25.5 27.1 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.4 112.0 112.7 113.4 115.0 116.6 118.2 119.7 121.1 122.4 123.6 124.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 8 5 4 4 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 5 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -18. -27. -36. -44. -50. -56. -60. -64. -68. -73. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -4. -8. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -7. -15. -24. -33. -44. -57. -69. -78. -83. -88. -93. -99.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 18.9 110.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.81 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.30 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 16.3% 12.3% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.5% 4.1% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/16/15 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##