* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 120 122 121 119 109 97 86 76 69 60 54 47 42 36 30 23 V (KT) LAND 115 120 122 121 119 109 97 86 76 69 60 54 47 42 36 30 23 V (KT) LGEM 115 119 118 115 111 101 91 80 70 58 49 41 36 32 29 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 4 1 4 6 7 11 11 11 11 8 3 7 9 16 20 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 -4 0 -1 -2 0 -3 -1 -2 -3 -6 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 275 294 3 147 132 94 63 63 40 21 359 273 290 256 250 263 270 SST (C) 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.7 25.7 24.4 22.8 22.8 23.3 23.0 23.0 22.8 22.7 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 145 141 138 136 130 120 106 90 90 95 91 91 88 88 85 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.4 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -50.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 700-500 MB RH 72 72 69 67 68 62 63 60 61 56 55 53 50 48 46 42 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 34 37 39 37 38 37 37 37 36 34 32 29 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 39 53 69 77 78 96 102 110 108 86 64 41 34 35 27 18 12 200 MB DIV 77 85 68 63 46 51 2 13 -4 4 -7 7 -5 17 1 6 -16 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -3 -1 1 -2 -2 -5 0 -2 1 3 2 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 504 491 467 457 455 492 557 610 696 716 754 827 892 904 920 942 998 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.1 22.0 23.2 24.5 26.0 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.5 111.0 111.6 112.1 113.5 115.1 116.7 118.4 120.0 121.6 123.1 124.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 9 7 7 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 12 9 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -21. -31. -40. -49. -57. -63. -67. -71. -75. -81. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 7. 6. 4. -6. -18. -29. -39. -46. -55. -61. -68. -73. -79. -85. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.2 109.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.83 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.4% 24.7% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.3% 7.6% 3.5% 2.0% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.5% 10.9% 7.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##