* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/14/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 88 96 104 113 113 106 92 79 64 53 44 38 32 26 21 V (KT) LAND 75 81 88 96 104 113 113 106 92 79 64 53 44 38 32 26 21 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 84 88 93 103 106 99 88 75 61 48 39 33 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 5 3 3 2 4 5 4 8 9 7 3 8 11 11 20 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 -1 -2 0 0 2 3 0 -4 2 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 326 359 342 356 19 89 82 51 79 71 57 360 315 280 256 238 N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 27.2 26.7 25.8 25.0 23.5 23.1 23.2 23.0 22.3 22.8 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 153 152 150 135 130 120 112 97 93 94 92 84 90 81 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -51.0 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 72 71 69 67 60 60 55 51 47 45 42 42 34 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 32 35 36 38 37 34 33 29 26 23 20 17 13 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 33 52 47 57 77 87 86 90 99 85 62 57 25 11 13 N/A 200 MB DIV 72 88 67 68 64 54 57 3 22 3 13 13 11 4 9 9 N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -3 1 1 4 N/A LAND (KM) 388 412 435 457 456 403 400 453 480 533 591 606 658 679 668 579 543 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.4 22.2 23.3 24.7 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.8 109.2 109.6 110.0 111.0 112.3 113.7 115.2 116.7 118.3 120.0 121.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 19 16 15 11 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -26. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 12. 10. 8. 3. -1. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 29. 38. 38. 31. 17. 4. -11. -22. -31. -37. -43. -49. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.8 108.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.44 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.80 8.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 92.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.3% 50.2% 34.3% 22.9% 19.5% 20.3% 15.8% 10.7% Logistic: 22.7% 52.4% 27.5% 15.5% 12.0% 7.2% 0.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 6.2% 14.9% 7.1% 4.7% 0.5% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 18.4% 39.2% 22.9% 14.4% 10.7% 9.9% 5.6% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##