* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/14/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 77 86 96 105 116 120 116 106 95 81 68 57 50 43 34 21 V (KT) LAND 70 77 86 96 105 116 120 116 106 95 81 68 57 50 43 34 21 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 81 87 93 103 111 112 103 91 78 64 50 41 34 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 5 4 4 1 1 1 10 4 4 5 4 4 16 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -4 0 2 2 3 -2 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 314 329 342 32 17 11 84 99 48 87 102 29 29 325 232 238 233 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.7 27.5 27.1 25.9 25.3 23.6 23.3 23.3 23.1 22.7 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 159 157 157 154 150 138 134 122 116 98 95 95 93 89 87 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 78 78 77 75 74 71 70 67 61 59 55 52 46 44 31 24 16 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 26 28 30 32 35 36 34 34 30 27 23 20 16 11 4 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 23 38 50 52 68 83 85 102 103 89 72 72 63 55 41 200 MB DIV 52 68 79 91 71 68 52 59 24 9 0 -5 6 15 0 -16 -18 700-850 TADV -2 1 1 0 0 -1 -4 0 -5 -1 0 2 0 2 -5 6 5 LAND (KM) 337 359 384 406 428 488 437 434 481 511 580 652 677 735 793 767 665 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.9 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.2 107.7 108.1 108.5 108.9 109.9 111.1 112.4 113.8 115.4 117.1 118.7 120.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 27 23 21 16 11 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 79.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 14. 19. 19. 19. 14. 9. 4. 0. -4. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 16. 24. 22. 13. 3. -3. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 26. 35. 46. 50. 46. 36. 25. 11. -2. -13. -20. -27. -36. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.2 107.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 8.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 41.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.86 -9.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 8.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.97 8.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 4.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.8% 60.8% 40.7% 26.4% 25.1% 24.1% 17.0% 12.8% Logistic: 25.6% 62.9% 35.2% 21.7% 18.0% 15.0% 2.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 5.6% 39.5% 23.5% 15.2% 7.2% 14.1% 2.0% 0.1% Consensus: 20.3% 54.4% 33.1% 21.1% 16.8% 17.8% 7.0% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##