* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 34 33 31 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 34 33 31 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 33 32 31 30 28 26 24 22 20 19 17 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 6 8 16 19 13 16 16 16 17 19 14 8 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 -2 -5 -2 -2 -1 0 2 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 251 253 252 225 184 194 223 236 231 229 213 221 209 206 195 100 107 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 26.9 26.8 27.0 26.2 25.5 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.8 25.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 132 131 133 124 117 119 115 112 112 113 113 115 117 118 122 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 61 60 60 59 56 50 49 44 42 39 37 35 32 28 28 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 18 18 18 16 15 14 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 60 48 38 33 36 38 39 55 59 58 48 60 51 48 30 15 -6 200 MB DIV 46 36 12 -9 -10 -24 -5 16 14 -5 3 -11 -21 -12 0 -15 -30 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 -1 0 1 4 5 5 1 -2 -5 -5 -3 -2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1827 1850 1876 1921 1967 2063 2158 2073 1966 1881 1829 1800 1804 1830 1867 1891 1928 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.1 20.0 19.5 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.1 128.8 129.5 130.3 131.0 132.4 133.8 135.0 136.0 136.8 137.3 137.6 137.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 8 4 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. -26. -25. -23. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 128.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 17.6% 14.2% 10.4% 7.1% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.4% 4.9% 3.6% 2.4% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##