* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 76 85 94 106 110 110 107 96 83 73 63 54 49 40 32 V (KT) LAND 65 69 76 85 94 106 110 110 107 96 83 73 63 54 49 40 32 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 74 80 86 97 107 110 102 93 82 69 57 47 40 32 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 11 7 5 6 2 3 2 7 10 4 8 8 5 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -6 -1 -5 3 2 3 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 304 313 324 339 32 10 95 30 75 51 84 37 26 16 51 180 205 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.6 27.5 26.7 26.4 25.4 24.8 23.5 23.9 23.9 23.6 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 160 158 157 156 149 138 130 127 117 110 97 101 101 98 92 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.2 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 77 75 72 71 69 64 59 57 53 46 46 35 26 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 23 26 28 30 32 35 37 34 31 28 25 21 19 12 7 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 12 23 38 41 67 65 88 91 116 100 80 83 77 46 2 200 MB DIV 73 51 66 78 91 63 69 41 62 10 4 -14 11 6 10 -13 -6 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -1 -5 0 -1 2 -3 -4 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 301 321 348 376 406 459 459 427 463 528 572 679 755 783 865 1000 1102 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.8 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.2 107.6 108.1 108.5 109.4 110.5 111.7 113.1 114.7 116.3 118.1 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 28 24 21 17 11 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 72.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 12. 18. 24. 20. 15. 11. 6. 1. -1. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 20. 11. 3. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 20. 29. 41. 45. 45. 42. 31. 18. 8. -2. -11. -16. -25. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.2 106.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 2.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -7.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 7.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.0% 42.6% 28.8% 19.3% 12.9% 18.3% 16.4% 12.8% Logistic: 6.1% 30.4% 11.1% 4.8% 4.0% 5.7% 2.7% 1.5% Bayesian: 1.0% 21.2% 11.0% 6.5% 1.6% 4.6% 2.1% 0.1% Consensus: 7.7% 31.4% 17.0% 10.2% 6.2% 9.6% 7.1% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##