* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/13/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 35 34 33 31 30 26 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 35 34 33 31 30 26 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 6 8 9 14 18 16 15 14 17 18 20 20 15 18 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 2 -1 -4 0 -5 -1 -4 -2 -2 1 0 4 3 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 312 263 247 236 213 185 202 210 214 202 202 189 185 193 172 153 N/A SST (C) 26.9 27.2 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.6 25.5 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 136 132 130 129 117 120 116 113 112 112 113 113 114 114 114 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -51.3 N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 64 62 61 60 56 52 49 44 39 36 34 32 30 28 25 N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 19 19 19 18 19 17 16 14 12 11 9 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 56 43 32 33 54 49 72 77 87 83 91 82 81 77 82 N/A 200 MB DIV 49 45 29 7 -12 -16 -14 4 21 -8 3 1 -4 -11 -18 -19 N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 0 -1 0 2 2 3 2 0 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 1776 1780 1788 1834 1882 2001 2119 2117 1988 1882 1819 1788 1790 1824 1848 1879 1900 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.1 19.9 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.2 127.8 128.4 129.2 130.0 131.7 133.3 134.6 135.8 136.8 137.4 137.7 137.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 10 CX,CY: -4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. -24. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.5 127.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/13/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.59 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 19.1% 15.2% 11.1% 7.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.1% 5.3% 3.8% 2.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/13/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##