* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ENRIQUE EP062015 07/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 37 37 38 38 36 36 34 31 28 25 21 19 19 19 V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 37 37 38 38 36 36 34 31 28 25 21 19 19 19 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 37 36 34 31 29 27 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 2 4 6 11 14 15 12 12 13 13 16 20 16 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 1 2 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 1 1 1 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 342 328 270 237 223 182 191 215 221 203 198 189 180 184 186 151 134 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.5 25.6 26.0 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.5 25.7 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 135 137 134 133 128 118 122 116 113 112 112 113 114 117 120 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 60 61 58 56 52 49 43 40 37 35 32 29 27 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 18 18 19 19 18 18 18 16 15 13 12 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 79 71 59 51 42 48 51 54 71 72 82 81 83 79 76 73 80 200 MB DIV 75 53 52 37 13 -17 -16 -13 31 0 2 12 -11 -2 -8 -13 -19 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 1 0 1 5 3 3 1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1791 1801 1812 1842 1875 1963 2066 2181 2056 1916 1841 1811 1812 1834 1878 1932 1986 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.6 19.5 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.4 127.1 127.8 128.6 129.3 130.8 132.3 133.8 135.2 136.5 137.2 137.5 137.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 11 10 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 15. 14. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -14. -16. -16. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.6 126.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/13/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.69 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 20.5% 16.9% 12.8% 8.7% 9.9% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 6.1% 2.3% 1.5% 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 9.2% 6.5% 4.8% 3.0% 3.9% 4.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 ENRIQUE 07/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##