* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 69 78 86 100 112 112 110 107 101 93 82 73 66 61 55 V (KT) LAND 55 61 69 78 86 100 112 112 110 107 101 93 82 73 66 61 55 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 65 70 76 89 103 111 113 108 98 86 75 65 54 47 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 13 15 16 7 7 4 3 4 3 9 8 4 3 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -6 -6 -3 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 1 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 286 279 286 301 305 303 357 27 5 149 110 73 73 106 157 188 234 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.1 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.0 23.6 23.0 23.2 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 166 164 162 159 156 152 144 128 125 119 112 98 92 94 95 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -50.4 -50.7 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 80 80 79 76 72 71 69 69 70 68 62 61 57 53 48 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 20 21 24 24 27 34 35 37 40 40 39 36 33 30 27 23 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -1 11 16 12 23 54 54 80 90 97 114 117 107 92 78 52 200 MB DIV 79 62 87 89 70 100 66 67 57 55 37 25 -3 8 -12 -3 -2 700-850 TADV 3 4 5 3 1 0 0 0 -6 -1 0 -3 -1 -4 7 5 9 LAND (KM) 245 272 295 306 329 369 415 456 400 379 436 486 529 588 617 690 802 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.3 106.1 106.7 107.2 108.0 108.9 109.8 110.9 112.1 113.5 115.0 116.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 38 35 32 24 19 13 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 76.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 18. 24. 29. 33. 33. 31. 24. 19. 14. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 22. 12. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 23. 31. 45. 57. 57. 55. 52. 46. 38. 27. 18. 11. 6. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.4 104.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 12.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.55 7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 7.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -13.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.92 -11.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 10.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.3% 62.7% 44.9% 28.8% 24.5% 27.2% 38.8% 21.0% Logistic: 10.9% 38.6% 14.4% 6.2% 12.0% 10.2% 10.2% 9.5% Bayesian: 2.4% 26.4% 9.5% 4.5% 3.2% 8.5% 9.5% 2.7% Consensus: 10.2% 42.6% 22.9% 13.2% 13.2% 15.3% 19.5% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##