* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX EP062015 07/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 46 48 48 45 44 41 39 35 33 30 29 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 43 46 48 48 45 44 41 39 35 33 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 38 38 36 33 30 28 26 24 21 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 4 4 6 11 14 12 9 10 11 13 18 22 23 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -4 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 0 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 95 40 50 73 129 187 184 194 205 202 178 174 164 168 167 158 131 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 138 139 139 134 132 127 124 121 119 118 119 120 122 124 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 65 63 61 60 59 59 60 59 56 53 47 42 35 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 107 101 87 80 76 64 56 47 49 48 50 51 49 63 58 56 58 200 MB DIV 99 86 51 34 47 19 -5 -1 -6 17 11 3 15 11 1 -15 -16 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 3 2 1 0 -3 -4 -6 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 1871 1891 1914 1934 1953 2012 2087 2167 2244 2137 2057 2003 1972 1974 2008 2052 2108 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.1 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.9 126.6 127.2 127.9 128.5 129.8 131.2 132.4 133.6 134.6 135.3 135.8 136.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 2 0 1 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 23 31 28 22 13 9 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. 23. 22. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 15. 14. 11. 9. 5. 3. 0. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.9 125.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062015 SIX 07/13/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 24.1% 18.7% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 12.3% Logistic: 3.4% 17.3% 8.8% 5.6% 1.1% 5.7% 3.5% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 14.7% 9.4% 6.5% 0.4% 1.9% 6.1% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062015 SIX 07/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##