* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOLORES EP052015 07/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 60 69 78 92 103 104 105 102 101 94 82 76 70 64 59 V (KT) LAND 45 51 60 69 78 92 103 104 105 102 101 94 82 76 70 64 59 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 54 59 64 76 91 103 105 106 99 89 78 69 61 53 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 12 13 15 12 6 6 2 1 6 7 10 7 5 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -4 -7 -3 -2 0 -3 0 -4 -2 -5 0 2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 263 286 279 287 299 302 336 347 7 113 145 73 71 66 106 101 95 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.4 30.3 29.7 29.3 28.7 28.3 27.4 26.3 26.0 25.3 25.0 24.1 23.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 168 167 160 156 149 146 137 125 122 115 112 103 100 101 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.3 -50.7 -50.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.2 -50.7 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 8 6 8 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 81 80 80 78 74 73 69 68 69 69 65 63 58 55 47 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 20 21 24 26 31 33 36 37 41 40 35 35 32 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -7 -4 7 16 18 48 50 66 81 99 103 117 114 102 70 42 200 MB DIV 121 81 63 84 91 92 87 56 71 49 52 5 23 -9 17 -11 2 700-850 TADV 5 2 4 4 3 0 0 0 -1 -7 1 -1 -1 -5 3 3 7 LAND (KM) 231 236 254 273 282 325 363 407 390 364 394 471 506 580 668 692 751 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.4 104.2 105.1 105.7 106.4 107.5 108.3 109.2 110.2 111.4 112.7 114.1 115.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 39 40 40 38 28 21 14 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 77.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. 19. 18. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 17. 23. 30. 33. 37. 34. 25. 22. 18. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 22. 12. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 15. 24. 33. 47. 58. 59. 60. 57. 56. 49. 37. 31. 25. 19. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.0 103.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 13.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 8.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -40.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.95 -11.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 7.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 64.8% 44.2% 27.4% 23.1% 26.2% 64.2% 52.7% Logistic: 15.3% 53.9% 27.3% 11.7% 22.8% 19.3% 21.3% 23.1% Bayesian: 3.1% 37.8% 21.0% 12.3% 12.1% 12.7% 13.3% 9.0% Consensus: 11.3% 52.1% 30.8% 17.1% 19.3% 19.4% 32.9% 28.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052015 DOLORES 07/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##