* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IUNE CP022015 07/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 30 32 35 40 43 46 46 46 45 45 46 48 50 51 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 30 32 35 40 43 46 46 46 45 45 46 48 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 27 27 29 31 35 39 44 49 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 10 7 7 3 9 11 13 12 10 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -6 -6 -1 0 -1 -4 -4 -7 -5 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 105 120 134 131 124 115 37 66 48 56 30 288 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 136 138 139 142 144 143 143 142 145 146 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 54 52 52 52 52 51 51 50 48 47 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 48 44 44 57 40 35 30 25 19 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 6 1 -19 -37 -8 -13 2 -17 -11 -35 -34 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 0 -1 0 3 1 0 0 0 -2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 688 779 856 917 987 1136 1288 1448 1606 1755 1909 2077 2239 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.5 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.6 161.6 162.5 163.5 164.5 166.5 168.5 170.6 172.5 174.2 175.9 177.7 179.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 10 19 32 44 38 35 25 28 58 55 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 16. 16. 16. 15. 15. 16. 18. 20. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 160.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 2.4% 0.6% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022015 IUNE 07/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##